“Risk is not a hammer — and most of our problems aren’t nails.”
😷 Adam Shostack opened his talk at USENIX Security '25 with that line. Immediately, the room started leaning in.
He told a story from a workshop where someone confidently said, “We’ll just quantify the risk and decide from there.”
Everyone nodded. Spreadsheets opened. Numbers multiplied.
And then… silence.
No one actually had the data to make those numbers mean anything.
In that moment, Adam captured a pattern he’s seen for years:
We treat risk as if it’s a universal problem-solver, a hammer that can drive every cybersecurity nail.
But risk isn’t a decision engine. It’s a language.
And it’s often the wrong one for the problems we face.
Risk analysis came from gambling and insurance — domains built on iteration. In both domains, you can roll the dice thousands of times and refine your odds.
But in cybersecurity, there’s not always repetition. Each attack, each exploit, each breach can be a one-off.
So Adam challenged the audience to reframe the question:
Not “What’s the risk?” But “What decision are we really trying to make — and what uncertainty can we live with?”
Because when we stop swinging “risk” like a hammer, we finally start to see the real shape of the work.
❓ Ready to listen to the full talk? Watch now with the link in the comments. 🔗