14 days ago, the #Israeli government approved construction on the highly controversial E1 settlement in the #WestBank. The settlements are widely considered illegal under international law (Geneva Convention and more) and as an obstacle to peace, complicating the borders of a potential Palestinian state. But how does their presence shape conflict behaviour on the ground?
My new article in 𝑷𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑷𝒔𝒚𝒄𝒉𝒐𝒍𝒐𝒈𝒚, co-authored by Christian Krekel, investigates this issue. It is the largest study to date of individual #protest behaviour in the West Bank (N=8360), based on four months of fieldwork during my PhD in 2022, and an overall observation period over ten years.
++ 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:
➡️ Within a 3km radius, settlements transforms Palestinian protest into more high-risk actions (+41% to +82%), and increases support for political violence
➡️ This shift comes at the expense of more moderate protest (down 30–36%) and lower support for diplomatic initiatives
➡️ As is well-documented, Palestinians are exposed to increased attacks and harassment by Israeli settlers in their proximity. But crucially, this does not explain the observed shifts in protest forms - instead the presence of settlements heightened feelings of group-based injustice, a known psychological driver of collective action
The settlements don’t just restructure the territory, which is itself problematic - they also restructure the conflict, causing violence by settlers and local residents, then reciprocal violence, and so on. This dynamic, which we quantify here for the first time, is extremely alarming given the ongoing expansion of settlement activity in the West Bank.
There’s a lot more to unpack, but if you are interested in these current affairs, check for yourself! Open access link to the journal: https://lnkd.in/eybM3DhC
#paper #behaviour #middleeast #conflict
