I am trying to run simulation scenarios which in turn should provide me with the best scenario for a given date, back tested a couple of months. The input for a specific scenario has 4 input variables with each of the variables being able to be in 5 states (625 permutations). The flow of the model is as follows:
- Simulate 625 scenarios to get each of their profit
- Rank each of the scenarios according to their profit
- Repeat the process through a 1-day expanding window for the last 2 months starting on the 1st Dec 2015 - creating a time series of ranks for each of the 625 scenarios
The unfortunate result for this is 5 nested for loops which can take extremely long to run. I had a look at the foreach package, but I am concerned around how the combining of the outputs will work in my scenario.
The current code that I am using works as follows, first I create the possible states of each of the inputs along with the window
a<-seq(as.Date("2015-12-01", "%Y-%m-%d"),as.Date(Sys.Date()-1, "%Y-%m-%d"),by="day")
#input variables
b<-seq(1,5,1)
c<-seq(1,5,1)
d<-seq(1,5,1)
e<-seq(1,5,1)
set.seed(3142)
tot_results<-NULL
Next the nested for loops proceed to run through the simulations for me.
for(i in 1:length(a))
{
cat(paste0("\n","Current estimation date: ", a[i]),";itteration:",i," \n")
#subset data for backtesting
dataset_calc<-dataset[which(dataset$Date<=a[i]),]
p=1
results<-data.frame(rep(NA,625))
for(j in 1:length(b))
{
for(k in 1:length(c))
{
for(l in 1:length(d))
{
for(m in 1:length(e))
{
if(i==1)
{
#create a unique ID to merge onto later
unique_ID<-paste0(replicate(1, paste(sample(LETTERS, 5, replace=TRUE), collapse="")),round(runif(n=1,min=1,max=1000000)))
}
#Run profit calculation
post_sim_results<-profit_calc(dataset_calc, param1=e[m],param2=d[l],param3=c[k],param4=b[j])
#Exctract the final profit amount
profit<-round(post_sim_results[nrow(post_sim_results),],2)
results[p,]<-data.frame(unique_ID,profit)
p=p+1
}
}
}
}
#extract the ranks for all scenarios
rank<-rank(results$profit)
#bind the ranks for the expanding window
if(i==1)
{
tot_results<-data.frame(ID=results[,1],rank)
}else{
tot_results<-cbind(tot_results,rank)
}
suppressMessages(gc())
}
My biggest concern is the binding of the results given that the outer loop's actions are dependent on the output of the inner loops.
Any advice on how proceed would greatly be appreciated.
expand.grid(a,b,c,d,e)as your input.forfunctions which I could just build up from